Africa is expected to install a record 17 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2026, according to Ember analysis published in October 2026. Six countries are now gigawatt markets: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Algeria and Morocco.
About three-quarters of that capacity is expected to be in distributed systems that official statistics still struggle to see. Installations rose about 45 percent year on year, after gains of 51 percent in 2025 and 25 percent in 2024. Ember expects 36 of Africa’s 54 countries to set installation records this year.
Gigawatt markets and growth leaders#
South Africa’s share of African installations is expected to fall below 20 percent for the first time since 2019. Ember estimates the six gigawatt markets as follows:
- South Africa: 3.3 GW
- Egypt: 2.0 GW
- Nigeria: 1.7 GW
- Democratic Republic of the Congo: 1.7 GW
- Algeria: 1.4 GW
- Morocco: 1.0 GW
Year-on-year growth above 100 percent is estimated in 19 countries, including 544 percent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 282 percent in Zimbabwe, 176 percent in Egypt and 117 percent in Zambia.
Much of the new capacity is commercial rooftop, estate and hybrid backup plant, not only utility-scale farms. Customs data and installer surveys are currently a better guide than some national capacity registers, according to Ember.
Access investment gap#
In June 2026, the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank said Mission 300 had connected more than 50 million people across 40 countries since July 2023. Tanzania, Nigeria and Ethiopia were the leading beneficiaries. Kenya connected about two million people and Malawi about 1.9 million.
That pace remains well short of the 2030 target, and the International Energy Agency has said universal access in Africa needs on the order of $15 billion a year, against less than $2.5 billion committed for new connections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2023.
Kowatek Solar, a Nigerian solar and storage company, said the Ember figures align with its project pipeline, which shows Nigerian demand moving from emergency generators to designed solar-and-storage plants.
