{"id":9475,"slug":"spotify-chart-capture-mechanism-tests-oct-nov-2026","title":"Three candidate explanations for the spread in chart-capture share, tested on 12 African artists","source":"Computed from spotify-chart-capture-by-artist-oct-nov-2026","source_url":"","source_type":"computed","method":"Each hypothesis was tested as a Spearman rank correlation across the same 12 artists, using the 20-date pooled capture_pct and the stated variable from spotify-chart-capture-by-artist-oct-nov-2026. Tied values take mid-ranks. Because n is 12, no normal approximation was used: permutation_p is a two-tailed p-value from 200,000 random relabellings of the second variable with the Python random module seeded at 20261108, counting relabellings whose absolute rho equals or exceeds the observed one, with the observed arrangement included in both numerator and denominator. verdict reports whether the p-value clears 0.05. Twelve artists is a small population and these tests are stated as failures to detect an effect, not as evidence that no effect exists.","unit":"","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"medium","retrieved":"2026-11-08 07:51:30","n":3,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"hypothesis","label":"Hypothesis","type":"text"},{"key":"variable","label":"Variable tested","type":"text"},{"key":"spearman_rho","label":"Spearman rho","type":"number"},{"key":"permutation_p","label":"Two-tailed permutation p","type":"number"},{"key":"artists","label":"Artists","type":"number"},{"key":"verdict","label":"Verdict at p = 0.05","type":"text"}],"rows":[{"hypothesis":"Capture share falls as the artist's all-time catalogue grows","variable":"All-time Spotify streams","spearman_rho":-0.5245,"permutation_p":0.0836,"artists":12,"verdict":"not distinguishable from zero"},{"hypothesis":"Capture share falls as more of the catalogue is earned as a featured artist","variable":"Featured-credit share of all-time streams","spearman_rho":-0.3497,"permutation_p":0.2663,"artists":12,"verdict":"not distinguishable from zero"},{"hypothesis":"The chart ranking orders these artists the way their actual daily consumption does","variable":"Reported daily streams against chart streams","spearman_rho":0.2867,"permutation_p":0.3663,"artists":12,"verdict":"not distinguishable from zero"}]}