{"id":3529,"slug":"nigeria-share-egypt-flat-counterfactual-04-september-2026","title":"Nigeria’s panel stream share, actual versus an Egypt-flat counterfactual, 4 September 2026","source":"Computed from panel-country-concentration-28-august-2026 and panel-country-concentration-04-september-2026","source_url":"https:\/\/kworb.net\/spotify\/","source_type":"computed","method":"Two scenarios built from the same five non-Nigerian, non-Sao-Tomean countries' 4 September streams (Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, Ghana, Algeria) plus Nigeria's actual 4 September streams. 'Actual' uses Egypt's real 4 September figure (2,515,684). 'Egypt flat' substitutes Egypt's 28 August figure (2,787,936) instead, holding everything else at its actual 4 September value, to isolate how much of Nigeria's share rise this week is attributable to Egypt's decline specifically rather than to Nigeria's own growth. Sao Tome is excluded from both scenarios because it left the panel entirely between the two dates and has no 4 September value to hold flat.","unit":"streams","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"medium","retrieved":"2026-09-04 14:06:52","n":2,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"scenario","label":"Scenario","type":"text"},{"key":"total_streams","label":"Panel total streams","type":"number"},{"key":"ng_streams","label":"Nigeria streams","type":"number"},{"key":"ng_share_pct","label":"Nigeria share, %","type":"number"}],"rows":[{"scenario":"Actual, 4 September","total_streams":13139131,"ng_streams":9406449,"ng_share_pct":71.59},{"scenario":"Egypt held at 28 August level","total_streams":13411383,"ng_streams":9406449,"ng_share_pct":70.14}]}