{"id":10264,"slug":"nigeria-mobile-subs-year-counterfactual-2026","title":"Nigeria’s mobile-cellular rank against the other 24 African markets, Nigeria’s own reading swapped across four years","source":"World Bank open data, indicator IT.CEL.SETS.P2, Nigeria's full available time series (2021 to 2024); all other 24 markets held at their 2024 reading as published in african-mobile-subs-vs-spotify-chart-list-2026","source_url":"https:\/\/api.worldbank.org\/v2\/country\/all\/indicator\/IT.CEL.SETS.P2?format=json","source_type":"computed","method":"A counterfactual, not a real multi-year panel: Nigeria's mobile-cellular-subscriptions reading for 2024 (70.76), 2023 (98.48), 2022 (99.59) and 2021 (89.29) is substituted one at a time into the same 25-country table used in african-mobile-subs-vs-spotify-chart-list-2026, with every other country held at its own 2024 reading. For each substitution, Nigeria's rank of 25 and the count of the 21 non-charted markets whose 2024 reading still exceeds the substituted Nigeria value are recomputed by hand from the same two source tables; the four underlying Nigeria readings were pulled directly from the World Bank API, country NGA, indicator IT.CEL.SETS.P2, 14 November 2026. This isolates how much of the headline finding rests on 2024 specifically being the year with Nigeria's lowest reading in its own four-year series, rather than claiming Nigeria's connectivity itself changed relative to the other 24 markets in those years.","unit":"","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"high","retrieved":"2026-11-14 14:04:14","n":4,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"scenario","label":"Scenario","type":"text"},{"key":"ng_value","label":"Nigeria value used","type":"number"},{"key":"ng_rank_of_25","label":"Nigeria's rank of 25","type":"number"},{"key":"noncharted_exceeding_ng","label":"Non-charted markets exceeding it","type":"number"},{"key":"noncharted_total","label":"Non-charted markets, total","type":"number"},{"key":"exceeding_share_pct","label":"Share exceeding, %","type":"number"}],"rows":[{"scenario":"2024 reading, as published","ng_value":70.76,"ng_rank_of_25":22,"noncharted_exceeding_ng":18,"noncharted_total":21,"exceeding_share_pct":85.7},{"scenario":"2023 reading substituted for Nigeria","ng_value":98.48,"ng_rank_of_25":17,"noncharted_exceeding_ng":14,"noncharted_total":21,"exceeding_share_pct":66.7},{"scenario":"2022 reading substituted for Nigeria","ng_value":99.59,"ng_rank_of_25":17,"noncharted_exceeding_ng":14,"noncharted_total":21,"exceeding_share_pct":66.7},{"scenario":"2021 reading substituted for Nigeria","ng_value":89.29,"ng_rank_of_25":20,"noncharted_exceeding_ng":16,"noncharted_total":21,"exceeding_share_pct":76.2}]}