{"id":9406,"slug":"itunes-carryover-bands-vs-gap-2026","title":"Does a frozen download storefront explain the purchase-streaming gap? iTunes carryover bands against never-charting share, 17 African markets, 16 August to 6 November 2026","source":"Computed from itunes-download-chart-carryover-2026 and itunes-apple-purchase-streaming-gap-corrected-2026, grouping the 17 markets into three bands by iTunes day-over-day carryover","source_url":"","source_type":"computed","method":"The 17 markets are split into three bands by itunes_carryover_pct: 96 per cent and above, 30 to 96 per cent, and below 30 per cent. Band thresholds were chosen after inspecting the distribution, which is strongly trimodal: five markets sit at 96.47 per cent or higher, three sit at 26.58 per cent or lower, and the remaining nine fall between 65.71 and 92.14 per cent. Each band's figures are unweighted means of its member markets' values, not slot-weighted, so a small market counts the same as a large one. correlation rows report the association between itunes_carryover_pct and never_pct across all 17 markets as single values: Pearson r on the raw percentages and Spearman rho on the ranks, both computed over n=17 markets. These are reported to test, and to reject, the hypothesis that near-frozen download storefronts explain the never-charting gap: the band means move only 7.89 percentage points across the full range of carryover, and both correlation coefficients are weak.","unit":"percent","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"high","retrieved":"2026-11-07 13:50:17","n":6,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"band","label":"Carryover band","type":"text"},{"key":"markets","label":"Markets","type":"number"},{"key":"mean_itunes_carryover_pct","label":"Mean iTunes carryover, %","type":"number"},{"key":"mean_apple_carryover_pct","label":"Mean Apple Music carryover, %","type":"number"},{"key":"mean_never_pct","label":"Mean never-charting, %","type":"number"},{"key":"market_list","label":"Markets in band","type":"text"}],"rows":[{"band":"iTunes carryover 96% or above, near-frozen","markets":5,"market_list":"Guinea-Bissau, Niger, Cabo Verde, Gambia, Eswatini","mean_itunes_carryover_pct":98.61,"mean_apple_carryover_pct":65.81,"mean_never_pct":93.53},{"band":"iTunes carryover 30% to 96%","markets":9,"market_list":"Burkina Faso, Uganda, Mozambique, Mauritius, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Ghana, Namibia, Kenya","mean_itunes_carryover_pct":82.5,"mean_apple_carryover_pct":89.04,"mean_never_pct":91.05},{"band":"iTunes carryover below 30%, actively churning","markets":3,"market_list":"South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria","mean_itunes_carryover_pct":18.16,"mean_apple_carryover_pct":94.32,"mean_never_pct":85.64},{"band":"Pearson r between iTunes carryover and never-charting share, n=17","markets":17,"mean_itunes_carryover_pct":0.35,"mean_apple_carryover_pct":0,"mean_never_pct":0,"market_list":"All 17 markets"},{"band":"Spearman rho between iTunes carryover and never-charting share, n=17","markets":17,"mean_itunes_carryover_pct":0.38,"mean_apple_carryover_pct":0,"mean_never_pct":0,"market_list":"All 17 markets"},{"band":"Spread in mean never-charting share between the most and least static bands, percentage points","markets":17,"mean_itunes_carryover_pct":0,"mean_apple_carryover_pct":0,"mean_never_pct":7.89,"market_list":"All 17 markets"}]}