{"id":9035,"slug":"apple-home-away-tenure-restriction-tests-2026","title":"Restriction tests on the Apple Music home-versus-foreign tenure finding, 41 African markets, 16 August to 4 November 2026","source":"This desk's own Apple Music daily chart collection and its own artist-origin registry, recomputed under restriction","source_url":"","source_type":"computed","method":"Seven recomputations of the same measure on restricted populations, each built from the same 273,498 Apple Music chart rows with the same lead-artist normalisation and the same market-baseline adjustment. Row 1 is the published measure. Rows 2 to 4 remove one origin bloc at a time, including South Africa, which is the counter-example, so the test runs in both directions rather than only the direction that flatters the finding. Row 5 requires a recording to have reached three or more foreign African markets, because a single foreign market can be one unstable chart. Row 6 requires at least 10 days of home tenure. Row 7 removes the 13 paired recordings whose lead artist sits in this desk's origin-anomaly queue. raw_ratio is mean home tenure share over mean foreign tenure share; rel_ratio is the same after each share is divided by the mean tenure share of all recordings on the chart concerned. The two share-of-recordings columns count the proportion of recordings in scope that held their home chart longer than their mean foreign chart on each measure.","unit":"count","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"medium","retrieved":"2026-11-04 07:50:34","n":7,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"restriction","label":"Restriction applied","type":"text"},{"key":"recordings","label":"Recordings in scope","type":"number"},{"key":"raw_ratio","label":"Raw home\/foreign ratio","type":"number"},{"key":"rel_ratio","label":"Adjusted home\/foreign ratio","type":"number"},{"key":"longer_at_home_raw_pct","label":"Longer at home, raw (%)","type":"number"},{"key":"longer_at_home_adjusted_pct","label":"Longer at home, adjusted (%)","type":"number"},{"key":"what_it_tests","label":"What it tests","type":"text"}],"rows":[{"restriction":"No restriction, all paired recordings","recordings":384,"raw_ratio":2.56,"rel_ratio":0.98,"longer_at_home_raw_pct":84.9,"longer_at_home_adjusted_pct":51.6,"what_it_tests":"The published measure."},{"restriction":"Excluding Nigeria-origin recordings","recordings":202,"raw_ratio":3.27,"rel_ratio":0.84,"longer_at_home_raw_pct":83.7,"longer_at_home_adjusted_pct":45,"what_it_tests":"Nigeria supplies 182 of the 384 paired recordings. This drops the largest origin bloc."},{"restriction":"Excluding Egypt-origin recordings","recordings":295,"raw_ratio":1.95,"rel_ratio":1.2,"longer_at_home_raw_pct":81,"longer_at_home_adjusted_pct":58.3,"what_it_tests":"Egypt has the largest raw home advantage of any origin. This drops it."},{"restriction":"Excluding South Africa-origin recordings","recordings":328,"raw_ratio":3.2,"rel_ratio":0.99,"longer_at_home_raw_pct":89.6,"longer_at_home_adjusted_pct":50.6,"what_it_tests":"South Africa is the only large origin with no raw home advantage. This drops the counter-example."},{"restriction":"Only recordings reaching 3 or more foreign markets","recordings":214,"raw_ratio":1.82,"rel_ratio":0.97,"longer_at_home_raw_pct":83.6,"longer_at_home_adjusted_pct":53.3,"what_it_tests":"A single foreign market can be one noisy chart. This requires a wider foreign footprint."},{"restriction":"Only recordings on their home chart 10 or more days","recordings":276,"raw_ratio":2.81,"rel_ratio":1.05,"longer_at_home_raw_pct":94.9,"longer_at_home_adjusted_pct":60.9,"what_it_tests":"Drops recordings whose home tenure is itself too short to compare."},{"restriction":"Excluding leads in the origin-anomaly queue","recordings":371,"raw_ratio":2.5,"rel_ratio":0.95,"longer_at_home_raw_pct":84.6,"longer_at_home_adjusted_pct":50.4,"what_it_tests":"Thirteen paired recordings have a lead artist this desk has flagged for origin review."}]}