{"id":10147,"slug":"african-export-measure-day-drop-scenarios","title":"Day-drop scenarios for both African export measures over the same 20 Spotify panel days","source":"This desk's robust recomputation of african-banked-export-share-series, run once on each measure","source_url":"","source_type":"computed","method":"Each measure's 20 daily readings were summed and averaged, then recomputed with the highest single reading dropped, the highest three dropped and the highest five dropped. This is the standard leave-out test this desk runs on the column a headline rests on, and it is run here on both measures so they can be compared on identical days. It answers a different question from the leave-one-row-out counterfactual in african-export-banked-share-ex-france-oct-nov-2026: this one asks whether a few unusual days drive the average, that one asks whether a single chart row drives the shape. Figures are taken verbatim from the robust subcommand output for export_stock_pct and export_flow_pct. Limits: dropping the highest readings from a bimodal series removes high-regime days first, so a small mean change here should not be read as the series being stable; read it alongside the separation table.","unit":"percent","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"high","retrieved":"2026-11-13 01:50:17","n":8,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"measure","label":"Measure","type":"text"},{"key":"scenario","label":"Scenario","type":"text"},{"key":"days","label":"Days","type":"number"},{"key":"mean_pct","label":"Mean export share, %","type":"number"},{"key":"mean_change_pct","label":"Change in mean, %","type":"number"}],"rows":[{"measure":"Banked export share","scenario":"All 20 panel days","days":20,"mean_pct":1.335,"mean_change_pct":0},{"measure":"Banked export share","scenario":"Highest day dropped","days":19,"mean_pct":1.315,"mean_change_pct":-1.5},{"measure":"Banked export share","scenario":"Highest three dropped","days":17,"mean_pct":1.2734,"mean_change_pct":-4.62},{"measure":"Banked export share","scenario":"Highest five dropped","days":15,"mean_pct":1.2235,"mean_change_pct":-8.35},{"measure":"One-day export share","scenario":"All 20 panel days","days":20,"mean_pct":1.2775,"mean_change_pct":0},{"measure":"One-day export share","scenario":"Highest day dropped","days":19,"mean_pct":1.2656,"mean_change_pct":-0.93},{"measure":"One-day export share","scenario":"Highest three dropped","days":17,"mean_pct":1.2435,"mean_change_pct":-2.66},{"measure":"One-day export share","scenario":"Highest five dropped","days":15,"mean_pct":1.2194,"mean_change_pct":-4.55}]}