{"id":8472,"slug":"african-export-footprint-cutoff-sensitivity-29-october-2026","title":"Sensitivity of the export-footprint decline to where the 54-reading series is split","source":"Computed from this desk's african-presence-over-time series (54 collection dates, 13 August to 29 October 2026)","source_url":"https:\/\/kworb.net\/spotify\/","source_type":"computed","method":"The midpoint split used elsewhere in this piece (27 readings against 27) is one of many places the 54-date series could be divided. To test whether the decline depends on that particular choice, the series was split nine more times, every five readings from the 5th to the 45th, each time comparing the mean of every reading before the split to the mean of every reading from the split onward. head_n and tail_n are the reading counts either side. export_share and markets_charting are the same columns as the main series. change_pct for each is (tail mean minus head mean) divided by head mean, times 100.","unit":"mixed","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"medium","retrieved":"2026-10-30 01:51:47","n":9,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"cutoff_date","label":"First date in the tail","type":"text"},{"key":"head_n","label":"Readings before cutoff","type":"number"},{"key":"tail_n","label":"Readings from cutoff on","type":"number"},{"key":"head_export_share_pct","label":"Export share before, %","type":"number"},{"key":"tail_export_share_pct","label":"Export share from cutoff, %","type":"number"},{"key":"export_share_change_pct","label":"Export share change, %","type":"number"},{"key":"head_markets","label":"Markets charting before (mean)","type":"number"},{"key":"tail_markets","label":"Markets charting from cutoff (mean)","type":"number"},{"key":"markets_change_pct","label":"Markets charting change, %","type":"number"}],"rows":[{"cutoff_date":"2026-08-24","head_n":5,"tail_n":49,"head_export_share_pct":2.23,"tail_export_share_pct":1.61,"export_share_change_pct":-27.49,"head_markets":11.2,"tail_markets":8.27,"markets_change_pct":-26.2},{"cutoff_date":"2026-08-31","head_n":10,"tail_n":44,"head_export_share_pct":2.27,"tail_export_share_pct":1.54,"export_share_change_pct":-32.19,"head_markets":10.7,"tail_markets":8.05,"markets_change_pct":-24.81},{"cutoff_date":"2026-09-07","head_n":15,"tail_n":39,"head_export_share_pct":2.25,"tail_export_share_pct":1.45,"export_share_change_pct":-35.77,"head_markets":10.27,"tail_markets":7.87,"markets_change_pct":-23.33},{"cutoff_date":"2026-09-16","head_n":20,"tail_n":34,"head_export_share_pct":2.17,"tail_export_share_pct":1.38,"export_share_change_pct":-36.64,"head_markets":9.75,"tail_markets":7.82,"markets_change_pct":-19.76},{"cutoff_date":"2026-09-22","head_n":25,"tail_n":29,"head_export_share_pct":2.05,"tail_export_share_pct":1.34,"export_share_change_pct":-34.55,"head_markets":9.4,"tail_markets":7.79,"markets_change_pct":-17.09},{"cutoff_date":"2026-09-28","head_n":30,"tail_n":24,"head_export_share_pct":1.95,"tail_export_share_pct":1.33,"export_share_change_pct":-31.93,"head_markets":9.17,"tail_markets":7.75,"markets_change_pct":-15.45},{"cutoff_date":"2026-10-04","head_n":35,"tail_n":19,"head_export_share_pct":1.85,"tail_export_share_pct":1.34,"export_share_change_pct":-27.57,"head_markets":8.94,"tail_markets":7.79,"markets_change_pct":-12.9},{"cutoff_date":"2026-10-10","head_n":40,"tail_n":14,"head_export_share_pct":1.79,"tail_export_share_pct":1.33,"export_share_change_pct":-25.87,"head_markets":8.8,"tail_markets":7.79,"markets_change_pct":-11.53},{"cutoff_date":"2026-10-18","head_n":45,"tail_n":9,"head_export_share_pct":1.72,"tail_export_share_pct":1.42,"export_share_change_pct":-17.79,"head_markets":8.67,"tail_markets":7.89,"markets_change_pct":-8.97}]}