{"id":7534,"slug":"african-chart-share-pool-split-leave-one-out-2026","title":"Leave one reading out: how much of the rise in African music’s Spotify chart share is the charted pool shrinking, recomputed 45 times","source":"Computed from this desk's african-presence-over-time series, 45 readings, 13 August to 17 October 2026","source_url":"https:\/\/kworb.net\/spotify\/","source_type":"computed","method":"The 45-reading presence series is split in half and the change in African share between the two halves is decomposed into the change in African chart streams and the change in the total charted pool, using ln(share1\/share0) = ln(N1\/N0) - ln(D1\/D0). Each row of this table drops exactly one reading, leaving 44, and recomputes the decomposition on the mean of the first 22 remaining readings against the mean of the last 22. denominator_contribution_pct is minus ln(D1\/D0) divided by ln(share1\/share0), expressed as a percentage of the whole share move. There are therefore 45 rows, one per reading dropped, and every row uses the same arithmetic on 44 of the 45 readings. No reading is weighted or interpolated. The point of the table is to test whether any single collection date is doing the work in the headline split.","unit":"","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"high","retrieved":"2026-10-17 07:50:19","n":45,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"reading_dropped","label":"Reading dropped","type":"text"},{"key":"african_streams_change_pct","label":"African streams change, %","type":"number"},{"key":"chart_pool_change_pct","label":"Charted pool change, %","type":"number"},{"key":"african_share_change_pct","label":"African share change, %","type":"number"},{"key":"denominator_contribution_pct","label":"Of the share move, pool size, %","type":"number"}],"rows":[{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-13","african_streams_change_pct":10.914,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.985,"african_share_change_pct":13.16,"denominator_contribution_pct":16.2},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-17","african_streams_change_pct":11.885,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.776,"african_share_change_pct":13.908,"denominator_contribution_pct":13.8},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-20","african_streams_change_pct":11.466,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.988,"african_share_change_pct":13.727,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.6},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-21","african_streams_change_pct":11.461,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.947,"african_share_change_pct":13.675,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.3},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-22","african_streams_change_pct":11.612,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.95,"african_share_change_pct":13.832,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.2},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-24","african_streams_change_pct":11.601,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.797,"african_share_change_pct":13.642,"denominator_contribution_pct":14.2},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-25","african_streams_change_pct":10.99,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.133,"african_share_change_pct":13.409,"denominator_contribution_pct":17.1},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-27","african_streams_change_pct":11.368,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.88,"african_share_change_pct":13.502,"denominator_contribution_pct":15},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-28","african_streams_change_pct":11.252,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.878,"african_share_change_pct":13.382,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.1},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-30","african_streams_change_pct":11.337,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.703,"african_share_change_pct":13.265,"denominator_contribution_pct":13.8},{"reading_dropped":"2026-08-31","african_streams_change_pct":11.394,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.743,"african_share_change_pct":13.37,"denominator_contribution_pct":14},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-01","african_streams_change_pct":10.904,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.099,"african_share_change_pct":13.282,"denominator_contribution_pct":17},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-02","african_streams_change_pct":11.113,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.006,"african_share_change_pct":13.388,"denominator_contribution_pct":16.1},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-04","african_streams_change_pct":11.217,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.919,"african_share_change_pct":13.394,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.4},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-06","african_streams_change_pct":11.162,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.659,"african_share_change_pct":13.037,"denominator_contribution_pct":13.7},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-07","african_streams_change_pct":11.384,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.743,"african_share_change_pct":13.36,"denominator_contribution_pct":14},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-12","african_streams_change_pct":11.145,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.859,"african_share_change_pct":13.25,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.1},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-13","african_streams_change_pct":11.332,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.664,"african_share_change_pct":13.216,"denominator_contribution_pct":13.5},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-14","african_streams_change_pct":11.333,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.723,"african_share_change_pct":13.285,"denominator_contribution_pct":13.9},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-15","african_streams_change_pct":10.708,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.125,"african_share_change_pct":13.112,"denominator_contribution_pct":17.4},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-16","african_streams_change_pct":10.75,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.028,"african_share_change_pct":13.042,"denominator_contribution_pct":16.7},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-17","african_streams_change_pct":10.929,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.937,"african_share_change_pct":13.12,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.9},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-19","african_streams_change_pct":11.494,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.886,"african_share_change_pct":13.637,"denominator_contribution_pct":14.9},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-20","african_streams_change_pct":9.889,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.222,"african_share_change_pct":12.387,"denominator_contribution_pct":19.2},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-21","african_streams_change_pct":10.536,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.111,"african_share_change_pct":12.92,"denominator_contribution_pct":17.6},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-22","african_streams_change_pct":11.279,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.672,"african_share_change_pct":13.172,"denominator_contribution_pct":13.6},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-24","african_streams_change_pct":11.035,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.839,"african_share_change_pct":13.115,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.1},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-25","african_streams_change_pct":11.038,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.884,"african_share_change_pct":13.17,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.4},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-26","african_streams_change_pct":11.032,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.922,"african_share_change_pct":13.207,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.6},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-27","african_streams_change_pct":11.072,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.339,"african_share_change_pct":13.733,"denominator_contribution_pct":18.4},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-28","african_streams_change_pct":11.029,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.194,"african_share_change_pct":13.519,"denominator_contribution_pct":17.5},{"reading_dropped":"2026-09-30","african_streams_change_pct":11.684,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.837,"african_share_change_pct":13.774,"denominator_contribution_pct":14.4},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-01","african_streams_change_pct":11.946,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.671,"african_share_change_pct":13.849,"denominator_contribution_pct":13},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-02","african_streams_change_pct":11.418,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.883,"african_share_change_pct":13.556,"denominator_contribution_pct":15},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-03","african_streams_change_pct":10.92,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.857,"african_share_change_pct":13.019,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.3},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-04","african_streams_change_pct":11.239,"chart_pool_change_pct":-2.071,"african_share_change_pct":13.592,"denominator_contribution_pct":16.4},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-05","african_streams_change_pct":11.164,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.679,"african_share_change_pct":13.062,"denominator_contribution_pct":13.8},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-06","african_streams_change_pct":11.804,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.271,"african_share_change_pct":13.243,"denominator_contribution_pct":10.3},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-08","african_streams_change_pct":11.54,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.412,"african_share_change_pct":13.137,"denominator_contribution_pct":11.5},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-09","african_streams_change_pct":11.499,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.475,"african_share_change_pct":13.168,"denominator_contribution_pct":12},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-10","african_streams_change_pct":11.468,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.572,"african_share_change_pct":13.248,"denominator_contribution_pct":12.7},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-11","african_streams_change_pct":10.775,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.8,"african_share_change_pct":12.806,"denominator_contribution_pct":15.1},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-12","african_streams_change_pct":11.063,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.734,"african_share_change_pct":13.024,"denominator_contribution_pct":14.3},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-16","african_streams_change_pct":11.563,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.516,"african_share_change_pct":13.28,"denominator_contribution_pct":12.2},{"reading_dropped":"2026-10-17","african_streams_change_pct":11.421,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.582,"african_share_change_pct":13.212,"denominator_contribution_pct":12.8}]}