{"id":7531,"slug":"african-chart-share-move-split-five-windows-2026","title":"How much of the rise in African music’s Spotify chart share is African streams and how much is the charted pool shrinking, five measurement windows","source":"Computed from this desk's african-presence-over-time series, 45 readings, 13 August to 17 October 2026","source_url":"https:\/\/kworb.net\/spotify\/","source_type":"computed","method":"African share is African chart streams divided by total charted streams across the 75 country charts Spotify publishes. For each window the change in the share is split into the change in the numerator and the change in the denominator using logarithms: ln(share1\/share0) = ln(N1\/N0) - ln(D1\/D0). numerator_contribution_pct is ln(N1\/N0) divided by ln(share1\/share0); denominator_contribution_pct is minus ln(D1\/D0) divided by the same total. The two columns sum to 100 by construction. The first row compares the single reading of 13 August 2026 with the single reading of 17 October 2026. The other four rows compare the arithmetic mean of the first k readings with the mean of the last k, for k of 9, 12, 15 and 22; k=22 is the largest split that uses every reading once and leaves the 45th in neither half. Percentage changes are stated as exp of the log change minus one. No reading is weighted, excluded or interpolated.","unit":"","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"high","retrieved":"2026-10-17 07:49:20","n":5,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"window","label":"Measurement window","type":"text"},{"key":"readings_each_side","label":"Readings per side","type":"number"},{"key":"african_streams_change_pct","label":"African streams change, %","type":"number"},{"key":"chart_pool_change_pct","label":"Charted pool change, %","type":"number"},{"key":"african_share_change_pct","label":"African share change, %","type":"number"},{"key":"numerator_contribution_pct","label":"Of the share move, African streams, %","type":"number"},{"key":"denominator_contribution_pct","label":"Of the share move, pool size, %","type":"number"}],"rows":[{"window":"Endpoints: 13 August against 17 October","readings_each_side":1,"african_streams_change_pct":13.983,"chart_pool_change_pct":-4.569,"african_share_change_pct":19.441,"numerator_contribution_pct":73.7,"denominator_contribution_pct":26.3},{"window":"Means of the first 9 readings against the last 9","readings_each_side":9,"african_streams_change_pct":4.629,"chart_pool_change_pct":-6.318,"african_share_change_pct":11.686,"numerator_contribution_pct":40.9,"denominator_contribution_pct":59.1},{"window":"Means of the first 12 readings against the last 12","readings_each_side":12,"african_streams_change_pct":6.492,"chart_pool_change_pct":-4.645,"african_share_change_pct":11.68,"numerator_contribution_pct":56.9,"denominator_contribution_pct":43.1},{"window":"Means of the first 15 readings against the last 15","readings_each_side":15,"african_streams_change_pct":6.259,"chart_pool_change_pct":-3.752,"african_share_change_pct":10.401,"numerator_contribution_pct":61.4,"denominator_contribution_pct":38.6},{"window":"Means of the first 22 readings against the last 22","readings_each_side":22,"african_streams_change_pct":11.494,"chart_pool_change_pct":-1.886,"african_share_change_pct":13.637,"numerator_contribution_pct":85.1,"denominator_contribution_pct":14.9}]}