{"id":10338,"slug":"african-chart-breadth-window-sensitivity-13aug-14nov-2026","title":"Window sensitivity of three columns of this desk’s African Spotify chart series, 13 August to 14 November 2026","source":"This desk's own african-presence-over-time series, 62 collection dates from 13 August to 14 November 2026","source_url":"","source_type":"computed","method":"Each row re-cuts the same 62-reading series to a window, splits that window into two halves by reading position, and reports the unweighted mean of the named column in each half. The window 'All 62 readings' splits 31 and 31, first half 13 August to 28 September and second half 30 September to 14 November. 'August discarded' keeps the 51 readings from 1 September onward and splits them 25 and 26. 'August and September discarded' keeps the 30 readings from 1 October onward and splits them 15 and 15. One extra row drops the five largest readings from the first half of the full-window comparison on the breadth column; those five are also the five largest in the whole series and all sit in the first half, so that row is the harshest available test of the gap rather than a neutral one. The three columns are markets_charting, the count of published Spotify country charts carrying at least one lead artist of African origin; export_share, the percentage of African-origin chart streams earned on charts outside Africa; and african_artists, the count of distinct African-origin lead artists charting anywhere on the panel. Means are rounded to two decimal places, change_pct to two. Collection dates are not evenly spaced, so every split is by reading count and not by elapsed days, and the windows contain equal numbers of readings rather than equal numbers of days. The point of the table is the third window: the fall in both breadth and export share is present in every window that includes early September and absent from the window that does not, which makes it a step in the record rather than a continuing trend. The artist count is the exception and runs the other way, slightly down in the later windows and slightly up across the full one. A fourth window compares the last 10 readings of the series against the 10 before them, 20 readings in total, as the shortest cut that still has readings on both sides; it is the test of whether the floor is currently holding rather than of where the step happened.","unit":"","license":"Afrobeats Wire's compilation and analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0. Rights in the underlying source data remain with the source named above.","confidence":"high","retrieved":"2026-11-15 14:00:25","n":13,"first_party":0,"columns":[{"key":"series_column","label":"Column","type":"text"},{"key":"window","label":"Window","type":"text"},{"key":"readings","label":"Readings used","type":"number"},{"key":"earlier_mean","label":"Earlier half, mean","type":"number"},{"key":"later_mean","label":"Later half, mean","type":"number"},{"key":"change_pct","label":"Change, %","type":"number"}],"rows":[{"series_column":"Charts carrying any African artist","window":"All 62 readings (as published)","readings":62,"earlier_mean":9.13,"later_mean":7.74,"change_pct":-15.19},{"series_column":"Charts carrying any African artist","window":"All 62, first half's 5 largest readings dropped","readings":57,"earlier_mean":8.69,"later_mean":7.74,"change_pct":-10.93},{"series_column":"Charts carrying any African artist","window":"August discarded","readings":51,"earlier_mean":8.12,"later_mean":7.77,"change_pct":-4.32},{"series_column":"Charts carrying any African artist","window":"August and September discarded","readings":30,"earlier_mean":7.67,"later_mean":7.87,"change_pct":2.61},{"series_column":"Share of African chart streams earned outside Africa, %","window":"All 62 readings (as published)","readings":62,"earlier_mean":1.93,"later_mean":1.27,"change_pct":-33.99},{"series_column":"Share of African chart streams earned outside Africa, %","window":"August discarded","readings":51,"earlier_mean":1.65,"later_mean":1.27,"change_pct":-22.97},{"series_column":"Share of African chart streams earned outside Africa, %","window":"August and September discarded","readings":30,"earlier_mean":1.27,"later_mean":1.29,"change_pct":1.44},{"series_column":"African artists charting","window":"All 62 readings (as published)","readings":62,"earlier_mean":111.32,"later_mean":111.87,"change_pct":0.49},{"series_column":"African artists charting","window":"August discarded","readings":51,"earlier_mean":113.88,"later_mean":111.65,"change_pct":-1.95},{"series_column":"African artists charting","window":"August and September discarded","readings":30,"earlier_mean":113.4,"later_mean":110.47,"change_pct":-2.59},{"series_column":"Charts carrying any African artist","window":"Last 10 readings against the previous 10","readings":20,"earlier_mean":7.8,"later_mean":7.8,"change_pct":0},{"series_column":"Share of African chart streams earned outside Africa, %","window":"Last 10 readings against the previous 10","readings":20,"earlier_mean":1.32,"later_mean":1.22,"change_pct":-7.25},{"series_column":"African artists charting","window":"Last 10 readings against the previous 10","readings":20,"earlier_mean":111.5,"later_mean":111.1,"change_pct":-0.36}]}